Published on 15 September 2026 in Client Alerts

Two Critical Chokepoints and Their Lessons for Global Energy Markets

The Strait of Hormuz and the Bab al-Mandeb are two of the world’s most critical maritime chokepoints.  From October 2023, the Houthi movement launched a sustained campaign of drone and missile strikes against commercial vessels transiting the Bab al-Mandeb, the narrow strait connecting the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden.  This prompted major shipping lines to reroute via the Cape of Good Hope and leading to the establishment of Operation Prosperity Guardian by the United States in January 2024.  The events in the Bab al-Mandeb offer a critical lens through which to assess the current situation now unfolding in the Strait of Hormuz.

The Houthi campaign had extensive international consequences, including:

• Rerouting of ships – major shipping lines diverted vessels via the Cape of Good Hope.
• Force Majeure and supply chain disruptions – the attacks triggered force majeure provisions across a wide range of commercial contracts, charterparties, and sale and purchase agreements, causing significant supply chain disruption globally.
• Consequences for world trade and economy – global supply chains were severely disrupted, and the cost of goods transported through the region increased significantly.
• Environmental damage and humanitarian consequences – vessel strike resulted in fuel spills and cargo losses in environmentally sensitive waters, while crew members were killed, injured, or detained for extended periods.

While the Bab al-Mandeb demonstrated the vulnerability of critical maritime chokepoints to sustained attack, the situation in the Strait of Hormuz presents a significantly more serious danger for global energy markets:

• Disrupts shipping and energy production/export – any disruption to the Strait directly affects the ability of Gulf states to export hydrocarbons, impacting energy production and export capacities across the region.
• 20% of global oil trade – approximately 20% of the world’s oil supply transits the Strait of Hormuz daily, making it the single most important energy chokepoint in the world.
• No alternative route – unlike the Bab all-Mandeb, where rerouting via the Cape of Good Hope remained feasible, there is no alternative route to the Strait of Hormuz. 
• Controlled by State actors – Unlike the Houthi movement, a non-state actor, the Strait of Hormuz is controlled by Iran through the PGSA and IRGCN as State actors, making international response significantly more constrained and escalation bearing more consequences.

The Strait of Hormuz is one of the world’s most critical maritime chokepoints, through which approximately 20% of global oil supply transits daily.  In March 2026, Iran announced that vessels would be required to pay for safe passage through the Strait to avoid sea mines previously planted and confrontations with Iranian military vessels.  To implement this, Iran established the Persian Gulf Strait Authority (PGSA) in May 2026 as its official governmental body for issuing transit permits, with the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps Navy (IRGCN) providing military enforcement capacity. Iran’s attempted toll system directly violates the right of innocent passage under public international law and enshrined in the 1982 United Nations Convention on the law of the Sea (UNCLOS).  Under Article 26 of UNCLOS, no charge may be levied upon foreign ships by reason only of their passage through the territorial sea.  The PGSA’s system is inconsistent with UNCLOS and presents a direct threat to the freedom of navigation rights upon which the entire international community relies.

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